Forward thinking seems intuitive to most people – it is forward thinking that helps us plan and make certain decisions. But it’s backward thinking, or inversion, that drives some of the best decision-makers.
The idea of inversion (inverse) goes beyond analyzing the past. Instead, inverting a problem provides a clear path to better forward thinking. The former Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, states in “Poor Charlie’s Almanack“:
[I]t is not enough to think problems through forward. you must also think in reverse, much like the rustic who wanted to know where he was going to die so that he’d never go there. Indeed, many problems can’t be solved forward. and that is why the great algebraist Carl Jacobi so often said, “invert, always invert.”
When looking at the inverse, we can solve problems by thinking backward from our intended outcomes. This approach emphasizes the importance of considering the opposite of what we desire, and to uncover potential obstacles and challenges. When we imagine worst-case scenarios or reasons for failure, we can develop strategies that are more robust and effective.
In fact, inversion works by flipping the script on forward thinking. As opposed to determining the steps to achieve a goal, inversion take the opposite approach. We can find hidden challenges and create more effective strategies if we work backward from the end goal.
The idea of inversion have been used and recommended by several world-class decision-making experts:
An entire chapter of Steve Covey’s book, “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People,” is dedicated to this method. Habit 2 (Chapter 2) in Covey’s book is titled, “Begin With The End in Mind.” According to Covey:
To begin with the end in mind means to start with a clear understanding of your destination. It means to know where you’re going so that you better understand where you are now and so that the steps you take are always in the right direction.
According to Covey, developing a personal mission statement is an important part of following this mental model. By developing a personal mission statement, one can determine the end goal, including the mission necessary in order to achieve those goals. The mission statement should describe where an individual might intend to end up and what personal actions are required to succeed.
Others, like Chip and Dan Health, authors of “Decisive: How To Make Better Choices In Life and Work,” discuss a method of inversion called Prospective hindsight. They write:
[When people adopt] prospective hindsight to work backward from a certain future – they are better at generating explanations for why the events might happen.
In their book, the Heath brothers provide an example of how this method can be applied. First, researchers presented a group of participants with a description of a new employee and asked them to come up with plausible reasons why the employee might quit within six months. Each of them came up with an average of 3.5 reasons. Next, the other half of participants were asked to utilize hindsight; they imagined that it was six months later and the employee had just resigned. The second group generated 4.4. reasons each, approximately 25 percent more than the first group. Additionally, their reasons were more specific and relevant.
As part of their discussion, the Heath brothers also explore premortems. In this process, both a premortem and a postmortem are conducted in relation to a decision. A premortem considers potential future outcomes, while a postmortem examines past events.
A postmortem analysis asks, “What caused it?” Conversely, a premortem examines the possible “future death” of an issue, asking, “What killed it?” Based on the book, utilizing a premortem analysis might involve asking, “Okay, it’s 12 months from now, and our project was a total fiasco.” It blew up in our faces. Why did it fail?”
Similarly,best-selling author Annie Duke talks about this phenomenon in her book, “Thinking in Bets.” Duke writes,
Backcasting and premortems complement one another. A backcast envisions a positive future, while a premortem envisions a negative future. We can’t create a complete picture without representing both positive and negative spaces. Backcasting is the cheerleader; a premortem is a heckler in the audience.
Finally, decision-making expert and author of the Farnam Street Blog, Shane Parrish, emphasizes the importance of inversion in his book series, “The Great Mental Models.” Parrish, a disciple of Charlie Munger’s mental model approach, highlights inversion as a crucial tool. Parrish explains:
[A]s a thinking tool, inversion means approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Most of us tend to think forward about a problem. Inversion allows us to flip the problem around and think backwards.
Try to think of it this way: avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance. Being able to think forwards and backwards allows you to see reality from different perspectives. To apply inversion in your life, Parrish suggests two approaches:
- Start by assuming what you’re tying to prove is either true or false, then show what else would have to be true.
- Instead of aiming direction for your goal, think deeply about what you want to avoid and then see what options are left over.
Forward thinking is a crucial skill for planning and decision-making, but it is inversion that truly sets apart the best minds. This approach not only helps uncover hidden challenges but also aids in developing robust strategies. By thinking backward from our desired outcomes, we gain clarity and foresight, allowing us to navigate complexities more effectively. Incorporating inversion into our thought processes equips us with a powerful tool. It helps us avoid pitfalls and steer our actions toward success.