Second-Order Thinking takes thinking beyond the immediate answer. It challenges us to foresee the intended impact of our choices several layers below the surface. While first-order thinking only considers the direct consequences of our decisions, second-order thinking probes deeper, asking, “And then what?” By contemplating what follows each decision we make, we reveal a chain of outcomes that could alter our initial judgements.
Why Is It Important?
First-order thinking is quick and gratifying, but it often blinds us to hidden 
consequences. For example, while buying a larger truck may increase our hauling capacity (first-order thinking), the consequences include a much higher gas bill (second-order thinking). Second-order thinking equips us to make more sustainable decisions by weighing the long-term benefits against short-term gratification.
As Shane Parrish writes in The Great Mental Models Vol. 1:
“Second-order thinking teaches us two important concepts that underline the utility of this model. If we’re interested in understanding how the world works, we must think about second-and-subsequent level effects. … Second-order thinking ask us to consider the long-term implications of our choices, to make decisions based not just on what feels good now, but on what will lead to the best outcome over time.”
How to Practice Second-Order Thinking (Ex: Buying a New House)
- Identify Immediate Effects: Start with the immediate, first-order effects of a decision. In this case, buying a suburban home might provide more space for the family.
- Ask, “And Then What?”: Question each decisions next possible outcome. Moving further from the city may require a longer commute time, which may mean buying a new car.
- Consider Long-term thinking via timelines: Break down your decisions into time frames – How will you feel about this decision 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years from now? – to better predict the short, medium, and long-term consequences. Where will the local economy be in a year? Is this where you want your kids to go to school? Will you retire here?
Applying Second-Order Thinking:
This method applies to both small and large decisions. Let’s say you’re considering a new job offer. Initially, the higher salary sounds great in the short-term. But second-order thinking considers the hidden costs: more time away from family, longer hours, or a daily commute. In considering these outcomes, you make a choice grounded in a more holistic view. This helps you avoid making simple, surface level considerations.
10/10/10 Strategy:
Another valuable tool, the 10/10/10 rule, helps balance emotion and reason. It involves examining your decisions across three time frames by asking: How will I feel about this decision in 10 minutes? 10 months? Or, 10 years? This exercise helps temper short-term decisions. It instead forces you to take a longer-term, measured perspective.
Best-selling authors, Chip and Dan Heath, outline the 10/10/10 method in their book, Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. They write:
“10/10/10 helps to level the emotional playing field. What we’re feeling now is intense and sharp, while the future feels fuzzier. That discrepancy gives the present too much power, because our present emotions are always in the spotlight. 10/10/10 forces us to shift our spotlights, asking us to imagine a moment 10 months into the future with the same “freshness” that we feel in the present…” and “Conducting a 10/10/10 analysis doesn’t presuppose that the long-term perspective is the right one. It simply ensures that short-term emotion isn’t the only voice at the table.”
Practical Examples of Second-Order Thinking:
- Buying a house outside the city:
- Immediate (First-Order): More space; larger yard.
- Second-Order Outcome: Longer commute, higher care expenses, and increased daily travel time.
- Eating unhealthy food:
- Immediate (First-Order): Satisfies cravings.
- Second-Order Outcome: Possible energy crash, weight gain over time, and increased risk of health issues.
Benefits of Second-Order Thinking:
Second-order thinking allows you to make better choices that withstand the test of time. It identifies some decisions that appear to be attractive in the short-term, but with unanticipated liabilities long-term. This mental model is a tool for life, helping us weigh the future implications of our present actions. When we ask, “And then what?” or how will we feel about a decision 10 minutes, 10 months, or 10 years from now, we gain insights that help us better align our decision-making.