Mental Model: The Dip & When to Quit

The Dip: Quit Smart, Win Big.

The Dip is a mental model that refers to the tough stretch that precedes early wins along the journey to achieving meaning goals – when progress slows, motivation fades, and most people begin to lose faith. This is the moment doubt creeps in. Most people quit here – long before they see real results. But as Seth Godin explains in his book, The Dip: A Little Book That Teaches You When to Quit, this uncomfortable middle is not a sign of failure. It’s a test. And it’s where winners are made.

Godin argues that every meaningful pursuit – career, sports, craft – includes a phase where rewards vanish and progress feels impossible. This is the Dip. It weeds out those who quit out of fear, fatigue, or frustration. But those who endure the Dip – those who push through the grind and emerge on the other side – often become the best in their field.

The lesson is clear: winners do quit – but not out of emotion. They quit strategically. They abandon the wrong path early and double down on the most important Dips.

How to Use It – The Three Curves

Identify the curve – You’re either in:
- The Dip: It’s hard now, but worth it later. Stick with it.
  - Godin: “Almost everything in life worth doing is controlled by the Dip. The Dip is the long slog between starting and mastery. A long slog that’s actually a shortcut, because it gets you where you want to go faster than any other path. The Dip is the combination of bureaucracy and busywork you must deal with in order to get certified in scuba diving.”
  - Godin: “IMPORTANT NOTE: Successful people don’t just ride out the Dip. They don’t just buckle down and survive it. No, they lean into the Dip. They push harder, change the rules as they go. Just because you know you’re in the Dip doesn’t mean you have to live happily with it. Dips don’t last quite as long when you whittle at them.”
- The Cul-de-Sac: No progress, no growth – no upside. Quit immediately.
  - Godin: “There’s not a lot to say about the Cul-de-Sac except to realize that it exists and to embrace the fact that when you find one, you need to get off it, fast. That’s because a dead end is keeping you from doing something else. The opportunity cost of investing your life in something that’s not going to get better is just too high.”
- The Cliff: Feels great until the crash. Avoid it entirely.
  - Godin: “The pain of quitting just gets bigger and bigger over time. I call this curve a Cliff – it’s a situation where you cant quit until you fall off, and the whole thing falls apart.”
  - Godin: “If you find yourself facing either of these two curves [Cul-de-Sac & Cliff], you need to quit. Not soon, but right now. The biggest obstacle to success in life, as far as I can tell, is our inability to quite these curves soon enough.”

The Dip Is Where Success Happens:

Godin writes, “If you haven’t already realized it, the Dip is the secret to your success. The people who set out to make it through the Dip – the people who invest the time and energy and the effort to power through the Dip – those are the ones who become the best in the world.” Take salespeopl, for example. As Godin highlights, most salespeople give up after the fifth contact with a prospective client. After five interactions, the salesperson excepts failure and moves on. Yet, studies show that 80 percent of these customers would have been buyers on the seventh attempt. Godin highlights snowboarding as another example. Snowboarding is an exciting, fast, and hip sport. But why are those so few snowboarders? As he argues, learning to snowboard requires a painful dip. It requires a few days to learn the basic skills – with substantial wipe-outs along the way; making it easier to quit than to keep going. Godin writes:

The brave thing to do is to tough it out and end up on the other side – getting all the benefits that come from scarcity. The mature thing is not even to bother starting to snowboard because you’re probably not going to make it through the Dip. And the stupid thing to do is to start, give it your best shot, waste a lot of time and money, and quit right in the middle of the Dip.
…The next time you catch yourself being average when you feel like quitting, realize that you have only two good choices: Quit or be exceptional. Average is for losers.

Strategic Quitting:

Quitting is not failure. It’s focus. When you’re in a dead end, chasing a shallow goal, or headed for a cliff, quitting frees your time, energy, and resources for something better. As Godin urges, “The biggest obstacle to success is our inability to quit the wrong things soon enough.” More on quitting:

“That Noise Inside Your Head
You’re having a conversation that involves a lot of rationalization. You’re explaining to yourself why those Cul-de-Sacs you’re in aren’t really dead ends (they are). You’re busy defending the mediocre work your organization does because it’s the best you can do under the circumstances (it’s not). You don’t want to quit. It’s not fun. It’s not easy. So you haven’t. But you should. You must!”

Ask These Three (+ one bonus) Questions Before Quitting:

As Godin writes, “If you’re thinking about quitting (or not quitting), then you’ve succeeded. Realizing that quitting is worth your focus and consideration is the first step to becoming the best in the world. The next step is to ask three question.”

Am I panicking? If yes, don’t quit yet.
- Godin:“The best quitters are the ones who decide in advance when they’re going to quit. You can always quit later – so wait until you’re done panicking to decide.”
Who am I trying to influence – one person or a market?
- Godin: “If you’re considering quitting, it’s almost certainly because you’re not being successful at your current attempt at influence.”
What measurable progress am I making?
- Godin: “If you’re trying to succeed in a job or a relationship or at a task, you’re either moving forward, falling behind, or standing still. There are only three choices… To succeed, you’ve got to make some sort of forward progress – to stick with it in the absence of forward progress is a waste [b]ecause of the opportunity cost – you could be doing something far better, far more pleasurable, with your time.”
(Bonus) Do I have a Quitting Strategy?
- Godin: “Tool number one: If quitting is going to be a strategic decision that enables you to make smart choices in the marketplace, then you should outline your quitting strategy before the discomfort sets in.”

Godin’s Questions:

Is this a Dip, a Cliff, or a Cul-de-Sac?
If it’s a Cul-de-Sac, how can I change it into a Dip?
Is my persistence going to pay off in the long run?
Am I engaged with just one person (or organization), or do my actions in this situation spill over into the entire marketplace?
When should I quit? I need to decide now, not when I’m in the middle of it, and not when part of me is begging to quit.
If I quit this task, will it increase my ability to get through the Dip on something more important?
If I’m going to quit anyway, is there something dramatic I can do instead that might change the game?
Should I really be calling on IBM? Should I really be trying to get on Oprah?
What chance does this project have to be the best in the world?
Who decides what best is?
Can we make the world smaller?
If I like my job, is it time to quit?
Is doing nothing better than planning on quitting and then doing something great?
Are you avoiding the remarkable as a way of quitting without quitting?
… If it scares you, it might be a good thing to try.